As States Relax Gun Restrictions, New Study Finds That Firearm-Related Deaths Among Children Rise

Firearm related deaths NJ A study published by the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) in June 2025 found that states who made their gun laws more permissive after 2010 experienced a higher rate of pediatric firearm mortality. Before reviewing the study, we briefly review the Second Amendment and recent Supreme Court decisions that explain why many states relaxed their guns laws after 2010.
The Second Amendment of the United States Constitution reads, “[T]he right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” The Supreme Court and the Second Amendment. In 2008, the United States Supreme Court decided District of Columbia v. Heller, a critical case in Second Amendment law. Prior to the Supreme Court’s decision in Heller, Washington D.C. made it illegal to carry an unregistered firearm and generally prohibited handgun registration. Washington D.C. also required owners of lawfully registered firearms to keep the firearms either unloaded and unassembled, or bound by a trigger lock. The Supreme Court ruled that Washington D.C.’s handgun ban and its requirement to keep other lawfully registered guns in the home unassembled or with a trigger lock violated the Second Amendment. The Court explained that handguns are a category of firearms commonly used for
purposes of protection, and that the home was a place that traditionally requires protection. Accordingly, prohibiting keeping lawfully registered firearms in a functional position in the home, and prohibiting handguns as a class, violated the Second Amendment right to “keep and bear Arms.”

Two years later, in 2010, the United States Supreme Court decided McDonald v. Chicago. In that case, the Supreme Court held that the Second Amendment right to keep and bear Arms for the purpose of self-defense is applicable to the states, not only the Washington D.C. Meaning, after McDonald v. Chicago, states could not have laws that overly restricted gun ownership. In McDonald (2010), the Supreme Court held that the right to self-defense was “fundamental” and a “deeply rooted” right. The Court ruled in Heller (2008) that federal government bans on handgun ownership, such as Washington D.C.’s handgun bans, were unconstitutional. In
McDonald, the Supreme Court extended the right to bear Arms and ruled that the “fundamental” and “deeply rooted” right to handgun ownership for the purposes of protection applies to the federal government and the states. Following the Supreme Court’s decision in McDonald, states and municipalities, such as Chicago and Oak Park, Illinois, could not ban handguns.

Bottom Line: The Supreme Court’s 2010 decision in McDonald v. Chicago required States who previously had very strict firearm laws to make their laws friendly to gun ownership. But what influence would new, permissive gun laws have on pediatric firearm mortality?

Enter Dr. Jeremy Faust. As reported in JAMA, Dr. Jeremy Samuel Faust, M.D., asked, “Did states enacting permissive firearm laws after 2010—when McDonald v Chicago was decided by the US Supreme Court—subsequently experience higher rates of pediatric firearm mortality?”
In other words, did loose gun laws correlate to higher rates of children’s deaths through firearms?

Conclusion: Dr. Faust concluded that permissive firearm laws contributed to thousands of excess firearm deaths among children living in states with permissive policies.

The Study

The study’s objective was to measure excess mortality due to firearms among U.S. children aged 0 to 17 years after 2010. The study conducted an excess mortality analysis using the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database and compared results from before and after the Supreme Court’s decision in McDonald v Chicago (2010). The study divided the states into three groups, (1) states with the most permissive guns laws, (2) states with permissive gun laws, and (3) states with strict gun laws, and investigated the amount of excess firearm deaths that occurred in different states in the years 2011-2023. The study found that in the most permissive states there were 6029 excess firearm deaths. The incident rate was 158.6 per million of population. In the permissive group, there were 1434 excess firearm deaths, a rate of 107.5 per million people. And in the strict group, there were less than 55 excess firearm deaths, a rate of less than 2.5 per million people. Four states: California, Maryland, New York and Rhode Island, experienced decreased
pediatric firearm mortality after 2010, and all those states were in the strict firearms law group.

The Tradeoff

As reported by Good Morning America, Dr. Faust said, “States that made it easier to obtain and carry a firearm had a tradeoff for that, which was a higher rate of mortality in kids.” Dr. Faust told ABC news that this wasn’t just about overall violence going up. The change in gun deaths was far greater than any other trend the study looked at, including deaths involving motor vehicle accidents, overdose and even cancer. As reported in Good Morning America, firearms are now the leading cause of death in children and teens in the United States, a distinction not seen in other developed countries. During the 25- year study period, guns were involved in 4% of all pediatric deaths, outpacing motor vehicle crashes and cancer.

Possible Solutions

According to ABC news, Faust acknowledged that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, and that each state may need tailored approaches to address gun violence. He called for continued research and collaboration with policymakers to determine which gun safety laws save the most lives and emphasized the importance of evidence-based policymaking, comparing gun laws to the nationwide mandates for child car seats.
“You can’t leave the hospital with a newborn unless you have the right car seat in all 50 states,”
Faust noted. “That’s because vehicle collisions up until a few years ago were the leading cause of
mortality outside of infancy.”

New Jersey Gun Laws

NJ.com reported that according to the Gifford Law Center, New Jersey has among the toughest
gun laws in the nation, only second to California. New Jersey averages 5.3 gun deaths per
100,000 people a year and the national average is 11.9.

NJ.com also noted that about 80% of New Jersey gun deaths occur from firearms that come from
out of state.

Among New Jersey’s most notable gun laws are:
(1) Age limit: no one can purchase a firearm under age 18.
(2) ID card requirement.
(3) Criminal History: individuals with a history of certain crimes or who are on the terror
watchlist cannot purchase a gun in New Jersey.
(4) Handgun restrictions: New Jersey has tough requirements for proving the justifiable need for
a handgun permit.
(5) Ammunition: A firearm purchaser ID is required to purchase Ammunition.
(6) Assault weapons have been banned since 1990.
(7) Background checks: One must pass a background check through a federally licensed gun
dealer to privately transfer a gun.
(8) One may only transport a gun in a vehicle if it is unloaded in a locked and fastened case and
kept in an inaccessible place, such as the trunk
(9) Bump stocks are banned.

(10) One may not create or possess a “ghost gun” which are firearms that can be assembled
with untraceable components at home.

New Jersey has amongst the strictest gun laws in the nation. A recent study published in JAMA
reported that a correlation exists between permissive gun laws and a rise in pediatric firearm
mortality rates. According to Dr. Faust, there is no “one-size-fits -all” solution to gun violence in
this country.